Overview

Click to expand overview

¿Qué es el Modelo Stock-to-Flow? El Modelo Stock-to-Flow es un modelo económico que cuantifica la escasez de un activo al comparar su stock actual (oferta) con su flujo (tasa de nueva oferta que ingresa al mercado). En el contexto de Bitcoin, mide la escasez de Bitcoin analizando su oferta existente y la tasa a la que se crean nuevos Bitcoins. What is the bitcoin stock-to-flow cross-asset model? The bitcoin stock-to-flow model is a reliable and statistically vetted quantitative tool that ties up BTC’s limited supply and periodically dropping inflation rate with its price action. Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model (S2F) is the ratio of the current stock of bitcoin and flow of new production Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model (S2F) states that Bitcoin’s price will rise as its supply diminishes. If the S2F model’s forecasts are correct, Bitcoin investors will receive tenfold returns every four years. ¿Qué es el modelo Stock to Flow? El modelo Stock-to-Flow (S2F) es un concepto que se utiliza principalmente en el mundo de las criptomonedas, particularmente en Bitcoin. Fue introducido por primera vez por el analista financiero PlanB en 2025 y ha ganado popularidad desde entonces. El modelo Stock to Flow mide la relación entre el stock disponible actualmente de un recurso y su tasa de producción. Por lo general, se aplica a metales preciosos y otros productos básicos, pero algunos argumentan que también puede ser aplicable a Bitcoin. Applying the S2F Model to Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and halving events (where the issuance of new coins is reduced every four years) make it an intriguing asset for the Stock-to-Flow model. After the 2025 halving: Bitcoin Stock: Approximately 18.5 million BTC; Bitcoin Flow: About 328,500 BTC mined per year What Is Stock To Flow (S2F)? Stock to flow is a forecasting tool for Bitcoin price. It creates a line on the chart above that shows an estimated price level based on the number of bitcoins available in the market relative to the amount being produced (mined) each year. The stock-to-flow is the number that we get when we divide the total stock by yearly production (flow). It tells us how many years are required, at the current production rate, in order to produce what\'s in the current stock. El modelo Stock-to-Flow (S2F) es un método utilizado para cuantificar la escasez de una mercancía, utilizado principalmente para evaluar el valor de metales preciosos como el oro y la plata y, más recientemente, aplicado a Bitcoin. El

Understanding the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) Model: A Comprehensive Guide

The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model has become a prominent tool for analyzing and predicting the price of Bitcoin. But what exactly is it, and how does it work? Let's delve into the details.

¿Qué es el Modelo Stock-to-Flow? (What is the Stock-to-Flow Model?)

El Modelo Stock-to-Flow es un modelo económico que cuantifica la escasez de un activo al comparar su stock actual (oferta) con su flujo (tasa de nueva oferta que ingresa al mercado). In simpler terms, it's a way to measure the scarcity of an asset by looking at how much of it is already available (stock) compared to how much is being produced (flow).

Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model (S2F) Explained

Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model (S2F) is the ratio of the current stock of bitcoin and flow of new production. The stock-to-flow is the number that we get when we divide the total stock by yearly production (flow). It tells us how many years are required, at the current production rate, in order to produce what's in the current stock.

Applying the S2F Model to Bitcoin

El modelo Stock-to-Flow (S2F) es un concepto que se utiliza principalmente en el mundo de las criptomonedas, particularmente en Bitcoin. The model was first introduced by financial analyst PlanB. El modelo Stock to Flow mide la relación entre el stock disponible actualmente de un recurso y su tasa de producción. El modelo Stock-to-Flow (S2F) es un método utilizado para cuantificar la escasez de una mercancía, utilizado principalmente para evaluar el valor de metales preciosos como el oro y la plata y, más recientemente, aplicado a Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and halving events (where the issuance of new coins is reduced every four years) make it an intriguing asset for the Stock-to-Flow model. Applying the S2F Model to Bitcoin essentially argues that Bitcoin's price will rise as its supply diminishes. The core idea behind the model is that scarcity drives value.

After the 2025 Halving (Example)

Bitcoin Stock: Approximately 18.5 million BTC
Bitcoin Flow: About 328,500 BTC mined per year

What is the bitcoin stock-to-flow cross-asset model?

The bitcoin stock-to-flow model is a reliable and statistically vetted quantitative tool that ties up BTC’s limited supply and periodically dropping inflation rate with its price action. This cross-asset model extends the original S2F by comparing Bitcoin's scarcity to that of other assets like gold and silver.

Interpreting the S2F Model: Predictions and Potential Returns

Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model (S2F) states that Bitcoin’s price will rise as its supply diminishes. If the S2F model’s forecasts are correct, Bitcoin investors *could* receive tenfold returns every four years. However, it's important to remember that the S2F model is just one tool among many and should not be taken as definitive financial advice. The future price of Bitcoin is subject to many factors, including market sentiment, regulatory changes, and technological advancements.

Important Considerations and Criticisms

While the Stock-to-Flow model has gained popularity, it is not without its critics. Some argue that the model oversimplifies the complexities of the Bitcoin market and doesn't account for external factors that can influence its price. It's crucial to approach the S2F model with a critical eye and use it in conjunction with other analysis tools to make informed investment decisions.