BRICS Currency Dilemma: Why Even China's Exporters Hesitate on the Yuan
BRICS nations are increasingly discussing alternatives to the US dollar in international trade. However, the path isn't as straightforward as it seems. While China aggressively advocates for the Chinese yuan to replace the US dollar in trade between BRICS member countries and their global partners, even Chinese exporters have reservations. BRICS member China is in trouble as the Chinese Yuan is unable to keep pace with the growing US dollar. China’s exporters are bracing currency volatility as the US dollar outperformed the currency.
The Push for De-Dollarization and the Yuan's Rise
Fueled by fears of U.S. sanctions, Russia and China appear to be ramping up efforts, yet again, to use the renminbi (RMB) in trade with partners, while BRICS countries explore options for reducing dollar dependence. The question is, how realistic is this ambition?
BRICS Trade Dynamics and the US Dollar's Enduring Power
What BRICS countries have in their favour for denominating their trade in a currency outside the dollar is that on average, the grouping produces a trade surplus (mostly driven by China). First, according to a report by the Taihe Institute, intra-BRICS trade increased significantly, showing increasing economic cooperation. Intra-BRICS trade greatly benefited China. However, while BRICS nations discuss reducing dollar reliance, replacing it is unlikely anytime soon due to their reliance on U.S. markets, lack of a unified financial system, and, crucially, Beijing likely does not want the yuan to be fully convertible to maintain complete control over its currency. This limited convertibility is a major stumbling block.
Why Chinese Exporters are Wary of the Yuan
The core issue is currency volatility. BRICS member China is in trouble as the Chinese Yuan is unable to keep pace with the growing US dollar. China’s exporters are bracing currency volatility as the US China’s exporters face challenges navigating the fluctuating value of the yuan against the dollar. A stronger yuan can make their goods more expensive and less competitive in international markets, while a weaker yuan can erode their profits. This uncertainty makes relying solely on the yuan for international transactions a risky proposition.
The BRI and the Yuan's Global Ambitions
There are speculations that China, a BRICS member, might be poised to use the BRI initiative as a platform to increase the usage of the Chinese Yuan in global trade, potentially bypassing the dollar-dominated financial system. However, this strategy also faces hurdles, including acceptance by participating countries and concerns about China's economic influence.
The Trump Tariff Threat and its Implications
In a no-holds-barred interview, Trump laid down a threat that’s both staggering and unprecedented: a 100% tariff on all BRICS exports to the U.S. if they attempt to abandon the dollar. While the likelihood and impact of such a measure are debated, it underscores the significant leverage the US still holds in global trade.
The Future of BRICS Currencies
While the desire to diversify away from the US dollar is understandable, achieving complete independence is a long-term process. While this will eventually happen because the economy changes, for now, the complexities of global trade, the yuan's limited convertibility, and the dominance of the US market mean that the dollar will likely remain the dominant currency for the foreseeable future.