Coinbase Delivers in Q4 2025, But Will Bitcoin Ruin its Party in Q1 2026?
Coinbase (COIN) topped already strong estimates for fourth quarter results, posting a 138% year-over-year gain in revenue amid the major bull move in crypto surrounding Bitcoin and Ethereum’s surges, partly driven by increased institutional adoption. Coinbase almost doubled its net revenue to $2.2 billion in Q4 2025 from the prior quarter, beating analysts’ expectations of $1.8 billion. Coinbase’s net income skyrocketed. The exchange more than doubled its year-on-year revenue and posted Q4 earnings per share 109% higher than analyst estimates.
But the question now looms: can Coinbase maintain this momentum in Q1 2026? While Q4 2025 was a resounding success, fueled by a crypto market surge, potential Bitcoin volatility could significantly impact its future performance. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) reported fourth-quarter net revenue of $605 million, ahead of analyst estimates of $588 million, and up 5% from $590 million in the previous quarter.
Analysts expect Coinbase to report strong growth in both transaction and subscription & services revenue for Q4 2025. However, a downturn in Bitcoin\'s price could drastically alter the landscape. The exchange\'s volume metrics will likely continue to serve as a barometer for institutional crypto adoption going forward. Coinbase\'s regulated status and infrastructure positions it well for long-term growth, but short-term market fluctuations are inevitable.
Q4 2025 results revealed a $1 billion impairment loss on its Bitcoin holdings, contributing to a net loss of $670.8 million—the company’s fourth consecutive quarterly loss. This highlights the inherent risk associated with cryptocurrency holdings and their potential impact on Coinbase\'s bottom line. Their letter to shareholders explicitly noted, “due to crypto asset price declines in Q1 2025, we anticipate our subscription and services revenues will be lower..." This past foreshadowing should be taken seriously by analysts as well.
The drop could result in Coinbase slashing its outlook for the first quarter of 2026, and it could signal a tougher year ahead. “Coinbase continues to be well-positioned to capitalize on long-term crypto adoption,” but faces immediate challenges navigating market volatility.