US Excess Savings Depleted: Will It Impact Stocks and Crypto?
The burning question on every investor's mind is: will the depletion of US excess savings impact stocks and cryptocurrency markets? Recent data paints a concerning picture, and the answer is increasingly leaning towards yes.
What's Happening?
U.S. household savings rose and fell at unprecedented rates following the onset of the pandemic recession. Initially, a surge in savings, fueled by government stimulus and reduced spending, created a buffer. However, updated estimates suggest that these excess savings have dwindled significantly. According to analysis, the stock of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic in the U.S. was exhausted by 2025Q1.
The recent revelation that $3 trillion of US household savings have been depleted since August 2025 has sent ripples through financial markets, with significant repercussions expected.
The Depletion is Real: Numbers Don't Lie
US household savings are rapidly depleting, falling for the 23rd consecutive month, impacting retail crypto investments. With an average decline of $100 billion per month, the trend is undeniably downwards. Updated Bureau of Economic Analysis national accounts figures suggest US excess savings rates may be higher than originally thought, yet the overall trend suggests that we are still operating a savings deficit.
Household savings in the United States have plummeted this quarter. According to the data shared by “Barchart,” real savings are critically low.
Impact on Stocks
The link between household savings and the stock market is clear. When people have less disposable income, they are less likely to invest in stocks. This decreased demand can lead to lower stock prices, particularly for companies reliant on retail investors.
Crypto's Vulnerability
Cryptocurrencies, often seen as riskier assets, are particularly vulnerable to a decline in household savings. Retail investors, who often drive crypto market volatility, are likely to reduce their investments when facing financial constraints.
Specific Concerns: Small-Cap and Low-Cap Stocks
Low-cap and small-cap stocks and cryptos could take a hit as US household savings for the bottom 80% reach below March 2025 levels. These asset classes are often the first to suffer when investor sentiment turns negative and liquidity dries up.
Looking Ahead
The depletion of US excess savings presents a significant challenge to the stock and crypto markets. While the exact impact remains to be seen, investors should be prepared for increased volatility and potentially lower returns. It's crucial to stay informed, diversify investments, and manage risk effectively in these uncertain times.